Consumer price index (CPI) in 9 months of 2020 increased by 3.85% over the same period last year, mainly due to the price of pork increased by 70.55% (making the overall CPI increased 2.39%); besides, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic also caused the price of some medical products rising, and at some point, a part of population focused on buying and stocking basic necessities, partly affecting general social psychology.
Average CPI growth rate in 2020 (%)
In general, the price’s level in 9 months of this year increased quite high compared to the same period last year, since January increased by 6.43%, affecting the management and administration of prices in 2020, leading to the controlling inflation as the target less than 4% set by the National Assembly facing many difficulties and challenges. However, with the drastical direction and management of the Government, the Prime Minister, coordination of ministries, line ministries and local authorities, the increase of CPI is controlled gradually every month and CPI of 8 months this year grew by 3.96%, started falling below 4% CPI of9 months continued following the trend of gradually low growth rate by3.85%. The GSO expects that several main factors affecting inflation in last few months of 2020, including: (i) Fuel price will be complicated, unpredictable movements and likely to continue an upwardtrend as the world’s demand recovered when countries have gradually loosened up social lockdown and recovered production; (ii) Paddy price will be affected by conflicting effects when the EVFTA Agreement creates a positive motivation for Vietnams rice exports, the worlds rice demand is high due to the complicated pandemic in many countries, however, due to a plentifully domestic supply, rice price is forecasted to increase slightly; (iii) Prices of some essential goods can increase in some provinces affected by risks of disadvantage natural disasters and weather. On the other hand, pork price will be the factor to curb CPI’s increase because the supply of pork is being replenished from re-herds. Therefore, based on evaluating and forecasting the price of world and domestic’s trends, with the drastic direction of the Government and the Prime Minister, the GSO expects the average CPI of 2020 compared to 2019 will be highly possible to reach the national target of below 4%./.